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Photo: Alfredo Maiquez/Lonely Planet Images |
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Going Gray
Fall 2004 Puerto Rico is undergoing a demographic transition characterized by two phenomena: the island’s population is growing slowly (declining birthrate) and aging rapidly at the same time. This is a natural demographic transition that many societies in Europe and North America already have experienced. An economic transition characterized by declining yields and low economic growth rates is occurring simultaneously. All these trends are creating major changes in the over-50 population, which is quickly becoming one of the largest age groups in the country. To better understand the major socioeconomic and demographic issues facing Puerto Rico, it helps to look at population growth figures. U.S. Census estimates indicate that in Puerto Rico the percent of the population older than 65 will double in the next 25 years. During that same period, a 20 percent drop is expected in the under-20 age group. The island’s already extremely slow population growth rate will get even slower: in the 1990s the population was growing at an annual rate of less than 1 percent; an annual growth rate of 0.4 percent is predicted for the first quarter of this century.
Comparisons to the continental United States help put these figures in perspective. In 2000 there were 1,103 inhabitants per square mile in Puerto Rico, a population density 14 times that on the mainland, with 80 inhabitants per square mile. Slow population growth is desirable in a society with high population density and unemployment rates. While the United States’ unemployment rate was about 6 percent, Puerto Rico’s was above 10 percent. Although Puerto Rico experienced dramatic economic growth during the second half of the last century, it still lags behind the continental United States with regard to key economic indicators. Per capita income is nearly a third of the average per capita income on the mainland and about half that of Mississippi, the poorest state. As the economic growth rate slowed during the 1980s and 1990s, the goal of achieving income levels on a par with those of the continental United States has become more uncertain. While the overall U.S. economy grew at an average rate of 2.9 percent between 1990 and 2002, the Puerto Rican economy expanded at an average rate of 2.4 percent. Another result of slow growth and high unemployment is a high poverty index. The 2000 census revealed that 44.6 percent of Puerto Ricans are below the poverty line, compared to 11.3 percent on the mainland. More than 40 percent of Puerto Ricans 65 and older and nearly 50 percent of those 75 and older are living in poverty. Thus, Puerto Rican senior citizens are four or five times more likely to live in poverty than their counterparts on the mainland. The changing demographic will have the greatest impact on health care, transportation, and housing. More urgent, however, is the need to improve the local economy. The challenge is to generate enough resources to overcome poverty and unemployment so as to meet the future needs of a large group of citizens 50 and older. Puerto Rico needs to start planning now for a future that is only 20 years away. |
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